Psychometrics and Welfare

There is currently a lot of debate in New Zealand about reforming the welfare system, with the left arguing that welfare problems are a product of environmental factors, and the right arguing that the ‘welfare culture’ undermines individual willpower. There is little talk though, about genetic factors in welfare dependency, and the role psychometrics can play in social welfare policy.

Today’s workplace is an increasingly complex and competitive environment with few sheltered government jobs. In the 1960s it was government policy to create jobs for those with marginal capabilities. In the present economic climate this is not really feasible because of the decline of low-skilled work in factories, farms and offices. Today we need to know how many people on welfare can actually fill essential government vacancies and private sector jobs. However, the Government can’t make fair assessments about welfare recipients unless it has some reasonably objective means of assessing their capabilities.

IQ testing is a good predictor of success in many areas of life including success in job training and in government work, and is frequently used by the U.S military, which has to assess large numbers of applicants from low socio-economic backgrounds. At present, Work and Income Support only assesses applicants work interests and not their actual work capabilities. However, just because someone wants to do a particular type of job doesn’t mean they can- a fact that the military is clearly well aware of.

It is estimated that around 5 percent of the general population have learning disorders of one form or another and this percentage is likely to be much higher among those on welfare benefits. IQ testing can also be good for indicating the presence of learning disabilities. More often than not, a large gap between the verbal and non-verbal scores on an IQ test indicates the presence of a learning disability, while low scores on particular subtests, such as coding, often indicative of an attention disorder.

Ideally IQ testing should be employed at the secondary level as this would allow schools to give better career guidance and would not bias test results. Although testing could be done on long-term welfare beneficiaries it is possible that some welfare recipients might try to undermine the testing by deliberately trying to achieve low scores. Psychometricians are also developing ways to tests people’s reactions and ability to make quick decisions which is important for many jobs- particularly those involving the use of dangerous machinery.

Many of the long-term unemployed are now moving off unemployment benefits and onto sickness benefits with a big increase in people claiming sickness benefits for mental disorders. Increasingly, governments are responding by providing subsidised counselling for disorders like anxiety and depression. Before sending people to counselling for subjectively defined disorders like ‘depression’ welfare providers should test for the presence of learning disorders which often cause such affective disorders and which are easier to objectively assess.

The increase in sickness benefits could also be partially offset by introducing a sub-category of sickness benefit that requires recipients to look for part-time work. It is likely that many people with mental health disorders lack the mental stamina to undertake full time work but may be quite capable of working on a part-time basis. Indeed, they may benefit from the mental and physical stimulation from regular, part-time employment.

As it is currently conceived, the New Zealand welfare system is based on poorly defined, subjective criteria derived from outdated, ‘blank slate’ thinking about human abilities. It is time for the Government to adopt a modern, scientific approach to welfare that goes beyond the current thinking of the liberal left and the libertarian/neo-conservative right.

Western Overconfidence

The overly generous attitudes of many Western nations to China indicates just how overconfident their elites have become. China is just as much a threat to the vulnerable West as it is an opportunity. In particular, Westerners should not underestimate the intelligence of the Chinese or overestimate their own capabilities.

Since 1945 the West has steadily been losing ground to East Asia in hi-tech manufacturing and design. According to the field of psychometrics, East Asians have higher 'performance IQs' than Caucasian Europeans and this seems to correlate with the decline of Western manufacturing. The Japanese and Koreans build more cost effective and reliable motor vehicles than Europeans and Americans and seem to be able to adapt much better to complex just in time management practices.

Although the West has some brilliant designers many of their designs are too complex for Western workforces to mass-produce. A couple of recent examples: the delays with the new Aerobus Jets because of their unnecessarily complex electronics and the recent recall of 110, 000 Jepp SUVs due to faulty heated seats. If the West came up with simpler designs, with fewer superfluous features, then Western workers might be able to build them to a higher standard. This approach is certainly working for Skoda (albeit on a relatively modest scale).

In competition with China many Western firms are hamstrung by environmental legislation such as the Kyoto protocol, which China as a ‘developing country’, is not pressured to comply with. However, China is rapidly becoming the world’s second biggest consumer- it is already the world’s largest consumer of concrete and steel for example. Only struggling countries, with limited resources, should get special exemption from agreements like Kyoto.

There is also very little pressure on China to float its currency, which is kept artificially low and gives it an unfair trade advantage over both developed and developing countries. The arguments put forward by US paleoconservatives like Patrick Buchanan, in favour of retaliatory tariffs, are also rarely given serious consideration in the US media. However, Buchanan makes a strong point - how can Western firms compete without protection when they can’t freely export to China?

Even in areas where the West is more competitive than China, Western governments still take a soft line in trade negotiations. China provides a potentially massive market for Western agricultural goods and New Zealand has already rushed into a free trade deal with China. The New Zealand media though, doesn’t say much about Chinese farmers receiving significant production subsidies, even though it is very critical of the E.C for protecting Europeans farmers.

The Western media industry is held up as a showpiece of the so called ‘knowledge economy’ yet its profits are undermined by rampant piracy in China. If Western countries expect to import large amounts of goods from China they are going to have to export large amounts of products to China. This simply isn’t possible though, if their primary exports can simply be substituted by illegal copies. The Western media industry is only a viable export option if the West has the power and the will to enforce fair trade in media products - unfortunately, at the moment, such willpower is clearly lacking.

The elites of the Western world are spending too much time salivating about making money out of China and not enough time worrying about the Chinese making easy money out of the West.