Fertility rates up, but whites still lagging

According to a recent article in the Press, New Zealand has had a "baby blip" in the last few years, with 64, 340 babies born last year. This is 10 per cent higher than the average for the previous decade of 58, 380 and has raised the annual fertility rate to just under 2.2 births per woman.

However, there's a fair amount of ethnic variation in fertility rates. The article doesn't list the latest percentages for fertility rates per ethnicity, but here's the ethnic breakdown in registered births for last year. I've added the approximate population share of the respective ethnic groups in brackets:

44, 530 European New Zealand ( 73 percent)
18, 840 Maori (14 percent)
10, 120 Pacific Islander ( 5.0 percent)
7260 Asian (5.5 percent)

Without the latest population figures for the different ethnic groups I can't properly work out fertility rates by ethnicity but , It's pretty clear from the number of births that Maori and Pacific Island women are continuing to have more children that women of European and Asian origin.

The most recent figures for ethnic differences in fertility rates I could find at the Statistic New Zealand site were for the 2006 census, and indicate a slight overall increase from 2001:

2006 Fertility rates:
1.92 NZ European
2.78 Maori
2.95 Pacific Island
1.52 Asian
All groups: 2.18

2001 Fertility rates:
1.77 NZ European
2.59 Maori
2.94 Pacific Island.
1.67 Asian
All groups: 2.05

Fertility rates for European New Zealanders are increasing, but they still seem to be below the replacement level of 2.1 percent, while Asian fertility rates are still below the replacement rate.

The ethnic differences in fertility rates are highlighted by the differences in fertility rates by region. Among areas with a high Maori population, Northland had a fertility rate of 2.67, and Gisborne 2.68. By contrast, whitebread Canterbury and Otago had fertility rates of 1.88 and 1.59 respectively.

When it comes to reproduction rates, Maori and Pacific Islanders don't seem to be put off much by high living costs. Housing costs in Northland for example, are generally higher than in Otago, but that doesn't stop Northlanders from having more significantly more children. Otago's particularly low rate fertility, even by white standards, is probably connected to economic decline in Dunedin and the chronic housing shortage in Queenstown.

Despite having a high Pacific Island population, Wellington has the country's second lowest fertility rate at 1.81, but this low rate could also be due to its high percentage of single White and Asian professionals.

Interestingly, the only high fertility areas with a low Maori population are Southland (2.18) and Tasman (2.16) - both areas with relatively cheap housing (Southland has the cheapest housing in the country) and low unemployment.

Relative to Maori and Pacific Islanders, Whites and Asians seem to be more sensitive to economic conditions when it comes to having children. If housing is expensive or unemployment is high, then they will either put off having children or move to a cheaper area with reasonably low unemployment and have kids there.