1990 again?

With the demise of New Zealand First, and National's strong showing in the recent election there appears to be a strong likelihood that immigration is set to increase.

As in 1990, National has got into government with a strong majority during a recessionary period and is keeping conspicuously quiet on immigration matters.

Last time around National's solution to solving the economic downturn was to increase East Asian immigration to stimulate the housing market and attract foreign capital. The economy turned around, but the majority failed to benefit as a yawning gap opened up between wages and house prices.

It's now six years since New Zealand First's strong showing in the 2002 election send a message to the government that the majority of the population wasn't happy with wealth-based, non-western immigration, and there are a number of signs that National is considering opening the immigration floodgates once again.

Firstly it's junior coalition partner Act has a strongly pro-immigration platform - it wants a net immigration inflow of 30,000 -40,000 per year, and it doesn't appear to be very fussy about where they come from (this is pretty high when you consider the country's high level of out-migration to Australia).

Then there's National's unnecessary decision to broker a confidence and supply agreement with the Maori Party. On the surface it might seem strange that National is willing to make a deal with an ethno-centric party whose co-leader has stated she's opposed to white immigration, on the grounds that it's undermining the "browning" of New Zealand (particularly since National voters are overwhelming right liberal whites who are strongly opposed to ethnocentric policies).

However, if the Maori Party is not particularly opposed to non-white immigration, as co-leader Turiana Turia appears to suggest, then there's no reason why it can't work with National on immigration. All National has to do is to restrict white immigration and let in more Polynesians and Asians.

There is also National's plan to loosen up zoning restrictions and cut back the Resource Management Act. If National does intend to increase immigration then its essential that it make more land available for development so that there isn't another sharp increase in house prices as there was in the 1990s.

The demise of New Zealand First means there's no party in parliament with a immigration restrictionist policy to express opposition, since both Labour and the Greens support high immigration levels, and in the case of the Green's, increased refugee quotas.

Hopefully I'm wrong on immigration, but with the election of pro-immigration candidates like Kevin Rudd and Barack Obama in Australia and the U.S it appears New Zealand could be heading down the same path.