Demography and the Middle East

In blogosphere debate on armed conflict in the Middle East, one factor is conspicuously absent from most discussions - demography. Given the huge demographic problems that the region faces this appears to be a big oversight.

Most countries in the Middle East have young, rapidly expanding populations, while the regions resources are in steady decline. Water is becoming scarcer while oil and gas are very unequally distributed. Many countries like Egypt are already dependent on grain producers like Australia and the U.S for basic grain supplies.

Traditional conservative Lawrence Auster argues that the primary reason for Islamic terrorism is the Islamic religion itself. He points out that many other developing countries have reason to dislike the West but you don’t see Nigerians or Burmese, for example, attacking US airliners. In terms of explaining the suicide attacks on Westerners, Auster’s cultural explanation is very plausible. Historically suicide attacks are quite a rare form of conflict yet are commonly carried out by young Muslims.

In terms of explaining the high general level of violence in the Middle East the cultural theory is more limited. Although, Islam may be a more aggressive religion than say Buddhism, only a relatively small proportion of the world’s huge Muslim population is actively engaged in terrorism. Furthermore, much of the conflict in the Middle East is between Muslims rather than between Muslims and non-Muslims.

The most common reasons for war are not culture or religion but disputes over resources. When you combine a shortage of resources with a large population of young aggressive males the chances of violence are greatly increased. The Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s was a classic resource war where large numbers of Iranians died attacking oil rich Iraqi. Only a country with a large surplus population of young males could tolerate such losses.

The current instability in Iraq has provided unemployed males from overpopulated countries like Pakistan, Iran and Jordan an opportunity to practice ‘’low risk’ terrorism against Americans and pro-Americans. Only well-educated, suicidal Muslims are willing to strike at Westerners on their home territory.

However, in the chaos of Iraq, terrorists with more limited training and courage have an excellent chance of inflicting damage on their enemies without losing their lives in the process. The good work the US and UK are doing in foiling attacks on the West is being undone by their blunders in Iraq.

The enormous losses Iran sustained in the conflict with Iraq have had a significant effect on the nation’s demographic policies. Iran, alone among Middle Eastern countries, has implemented a major population control program. Sadly, this policy has not been acknowledged by Western governments, or held up as good example for other Middle Eastern countries.

Ironically, the wealthiest country in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, has one of the most irresponsible attitudes to population control. If Saudi Arabia followed Iran’s example, and implemented a responsible population policy, it would be a great example for many other Middle Eastern states.

As well as supporting population control policies, Western governments need to send a firm message to nations in the Middle East that they can’t export their demographic problems to the developed world. There is no place for large numbers of Middle Eastern Muslims in western countries.