In the early 1990s the National government embarked on a policy of wealth-based immigration without a popular mandate. This policy was continued by the subsequent Labour adminstration. During this time the population of the country rose from 3.3 million to 4 milion. Although this led to increased growth for a time it has also worsened labour shortages and has done little to reduce inequality or solve the nation's balance of payment problems.
Further rapid immigration is likely to present new problems. The country's neglected transport infrastructure is struggling to cope with increased levels of traffic while the energy infrastructure will have to be expanded - this means more dams and coal fired power stations, since wind power alone will not provide enough electricity. The larger New Zealand's population becomes, the bigger the environmental impact will be. Bio-security measures are already beginning to fall apart with environmental agencies failing to contain imported pests like sea squirts.
The New Zealand economy relies on five key sources of income; farming, fishing, tourism, education and metal refining. None of these sectors are particularly labour intensive and several are likely to be adversely affected by a substantial population increase. Tourists won't come to see suburban sprawl instead of scenery while aluminium refining (a vital foreign exchange earner) could get the chop if population growth leads to a big increase in power consumption. Valuable arable land is also disappearing under new housing subdivisions at a time when agricultural commodity prices are set to increase, perhaps drammatically. New Zealand's wild fisheries are already fully exploited with most species in decline. A bigger population will only see more commercial and recreational fishermen fighting over a rapidly shrinking resource.
To the extent that New Zealand does need economic immigration it should be limited to skill-based immigration. The country does need more technically savvy workers to make it more energy efficient, revitalise its depleted transport infrastructure, and increase the level of value-added exports. Wealth-based immigration has led to a drammatic rise in house prices without a corresponding increase in wages. This has forced many people under 40 out of the housing market altogether- this will lead to serious intergenerational inequalities in the future.
In the coming age of resoure scarcity and global over population New Zealand should try to preserve its status as a resource rich country by firmly limiting immigration. At the very least it should abandon the 19th Century policy of using immigration as the primary means to stimulate economic development.
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